{"id":1977,"date":"2026-01-27T02:32:25","date_gmt":"2026-01-27T02:32:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emtracker.sdsc.edu\/?post_type=emt-research&#038;p=1977"},"modified":"2026-03-02T21:18:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T21:18:40","slug":"capacity-payments-for-coal-fired-power-plants-in-china","status":"publish","type":"emt-research","link":"https:\/\/emtracker.sdsc.edu\/zh-hans\/research\/capacity-payments-for-coal-fired-power-plants-in-china\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u7684\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece2024\u5e741\u6708\u8d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u5f0f\u5b9e\u65bd\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u3002\u4f46\u73b0\u884c\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u6c34\u5e73\u662f\u5426\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u4ecd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u71c3\u7164\u88c5\u673a\u89c4\u6a21\u6700\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8be5\u673a\u5236\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u5b9e\u65bd\u5c06\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\u7535\u529b\u90e8\u95e8\u8131\u78b3\u8f6c\u578b\u53ca\u4f4e\u78b3\u80fd\u6e90\u6d88\u7eb3\u3002\u672c\u6587\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u5404\u7701\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u57282024\u5e74\u5f15\u5165\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u540e\uff0c\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u7a0e\u524d\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u5728\u201333%\u81f326%\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u4e4b\u95f4\u5dee\u5f02\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u4e14\u9884\u8ba1\u57282035\u5e74\u524d\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6269\u5927\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u6c34\u5e73\u5e94\u6839\u636e\u5404\u7535\u7f51\u533a\u57df\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u5145\u88d5\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u7535\u7f51\u8fd0\u884c\u7279\u5f81\u8fdb\u884c\u5dee\u5f02\u5316\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u4ece\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u5e94\u4ece\u884c\u653f\u5b9a\u4ef7\u9010\u6b65\u8f6c\u5411\u5e02\u573a\u5316\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u7535\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6539\u9769\u76ee\u6807\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6b63\u6587<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f00\u59cb\u5f15\u5165\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u7164\u7535\u673a\u7ec4\u7684\u6210\u672c\u56de\u6536\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5e76\u4fdd\u969c\u7535\u7f51\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u30022022\u5e74\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d1\u5c55\u6539\u9769\u59d4\uff08NDRC\uff09\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u6e90\u5c40\uff08NEA\uff09\u8054\u5408\u5370\u53d1\u300a\u5173\u4e8e\u52a0\u5feb\u5efa\u8bbe\u5168\u56fd\u7edf\u4e00\u7535\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\u610f\u89c1\u300b\uff08\u5373\u201c118\u53f7\u6587\u201d\uff09\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u8981\u6c42\u5728\u5f00\u5c55\u7535\u529b\u73b0\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5730\u533a\u201c\u5efa\u7acb\u5e02\u573a\u5316\u7684\u53d1\u7535\u5bb9\u91cf\u6210\u672c\u56de\u6536\u673a\u5236\u201d\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndrc.gov.cn\/xxgk\/zcfb\/tz\/202201\/t20220128_1313653.html\">NDRC, 2022<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c2023\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d1\u5c55\u6539\u9769\u59d4\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u6e90\u5c40\u8054\u5408\u53d1\u5e03\u300a\u5173\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u7164\u7535\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u7684\u901a\u77e5\u300b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e2024\u5e741\u6708\u6b63\u5f0f\u5b9e\u65bd\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndrc.gov.cn\/xwdt\/tzgg\/202311\/t20231110_1361899.html\">NDRC, 2023a<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u71c3\u7164\u673a\u7ec4\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u88ab\u7edf\u4e00\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e3a330\u5143\/\u5343\u74e6\u00b7\u5e74\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ea630%\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u53ef\u57282024-2025\u5e74\u901a\u8fc7\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u56de\u6536\u3002\u5728\u7164\u7535\u8f6c\u578b\u8f83\u5feb\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u8be5\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6700\u9ad8\u53ef\u8fbe50%\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndrc.gov.cn\/xxgk\/zcfb\/tz\/202311\/P020231110516150430728.pdf\">NDRC, 2023b<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u81ea2026\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5730\u533a\u901a\u8fc7\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u56de\u6536\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c06\u81f3\u5c11\u63d0\u9ad8\u81f350%\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u62e5\u6709\u5168\u7403\u89c4\u6a21\u6700\u5927\u7684\u71c3\u7164\u673a\u7ec4\u7fa4\uff0c\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u5c06\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7535\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5411\u4f4e\u78b3\u8f6c\u578b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f15\u5165\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8003\u8651\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u9762\u4e34\u65e5\u76ca\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u6210\u672c\u56de\u6536\u538b\u529b\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u81ea2023\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u88c5\u673a\u5bb9\u91cf\u4ee5\u6bcf\u5e74\u8d85\u8fc7300 GW\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u65b0\u589e\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u9879\u76ee\u4ecd\u5728\u63a8\u8fdb\u30022024\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u5efa\u71c3\u7164\u88c5\u673a\u7ea694.5 GW\uff0c\u5360\u5168\u7403\u65b0\u589e\u71c3\u7164\u88c5\u673a\u768493%\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/chinas-construction-of-new-coal-power-plants-reached-10-year-high-in-2024\/\">CarbonBrief, 2025<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u591a\u91cd\u56e0\u7d20\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u7164\u7535\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u7535\u4ef7\u6210\u672c\u4f20\u5bfc\u53d7\u9650\u3002\u5728\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u51fa\u529b\u5145\u88d5\u65f6\uff0c\u7164\u7535\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u53d7\u4e0a\u8ff0\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u666e\u904d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e8f\u635f\u3002\u4ec5\u57282021\u5e74\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u8d85\u8fc780%\u7684\u71c3\u7164\u673a\u7ec4\u672a\u80fd\u8986\u76d6\u5176\u8fd0\u884c\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u7d2f\u8ba1\u4e8f\u635f\u8d85\u8fc73000\u4ebf\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/m.bjx.com.cn\/mnews\/20220303\/1207815.shtml\">Chen, 2022<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u5728\u7518\u8083\u7b49\u7701\u4efd\uff0c\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u5360\u94f6\u884c\u5269\u4f59\u8d37\u6b3e\u989d\u6bd4\u91cd\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e14\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5168\u56fd\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.efchina.org\/Attachments\/Report\/report-lceg-20211020\/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%85%A4%E7%94%B5%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%8E%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90.pdf\">Wang et al., 2022<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u968f\u7740\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u5bf9\u7164\u7535\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u66ff\u4ee3\uff0c\u7164\u7535\u5229\u7528\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5267\u8d37\u6b3e\u8fdd\u7ea6\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5730\u65b9\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u529b\u4f4e\u78b3\u8f6c\u578b\u9762\u4e34\u660e\u663e\u7684\u8d22\u52a1\u7ea6\u675f\u3002\u57282030\u5e74\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u4e3b\u8d21\u732e\uff08NDC\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u51fa\u5355\u4f4dGDP\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u8f832005\u5e74\u4e0b\u964d65%\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u76842035\u5e74NDC\u5219\u8981\u6c42\u52302035\u5e74\u5168\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u8f83\u5cf0\u503c\u4e0b\u964d7-10%\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/en.cppcc.gov.cn\/2025-09\/25\/c_1128276.htm\">United Nations Climate Summit, 2025<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u4e3a\u63a8\u52a8\u7164\u7535\u51cf\u6392\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e8e2024\u5e74\u53d1\u5e03\u300a\u7164\u7535\u4f4e\u78b3\u5316\u6539\u9020\u5efa\u8bbe\u884c\u52a8\u65b9\u6848\u300b\u3002\u8be5\u65b9\u6848\u63a8\u52a8\u751f\u7269\u8d28\u6216\u7eff\u6c28\u63ba\u70e7\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u78b3\u6355\u96c6\u4e0e\u5c01\u5b58\uff08CCS\uff09\u7b49\u6280\u672f\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/asiareengage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/China-Coal-Action-Plan-Offers-Roadmap-for-Coal-Phase-Out.pdf\">ARE, 2024<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6539\u9020\u63aa\u65bd\u6295\u8d44\u89c4\u6a21\u5927\uff0c\u56de\u6536\u5468\u671f\u957f\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5b8c\u6210\u6539\u9020\u540e\u7684\u7164\u7535\u673a\u7ec4\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u4ef7\u503c\u66f4\u591a\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u63d0\u4f9b\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u548c\u652f\u6491\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u6d88\u7eb3\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-025-57559-2\">PKU, 2025<\/a>\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u805a\u7126\u4e24\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u5728\u73b0\u884c\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u4e0b\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u7164\u7535\u673a\u7ec4\u9762\u4e34\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6210\u672c\u56de\u6536\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5373\u76c8\u5229\u6c34\u5e73\u6700\u4f4e\uff1f\uff082\uff09\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u5e94\u5982\u4f55\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u9002\u5e94\u8131\u78b3\u76ee\u6807\u4e0e\u7535\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6539\u9769\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u7164\u7535\u8fdb\u884c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8865\u507f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u523a\u6fc0\u65b0\u589e\u7164\u7535\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5e76\u9020\u6210\u5316\u77f3\u80fd\u6e90\u8d44\u4ea7\u9501\u5b9a\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7164\u7535\u65b0\u589e\u89c4\u6a21\u8fbe\u5230\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u89e3\u51b3\u4e0a\u8ff0\u95ee\u9898\u5c24\u4e3a\u5173\u952e\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5c1a\u672a\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bc4\u4f30\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u8d22\u52a1\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u53ca\u8f6c\u578b\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u5f25\u8865\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7814\u7a76\u7a7a\u767d\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u4e0b\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7701\u7ea7\u5c42\u9762\u89e3\u6790\u6027\u5730\u6c42\u89e3\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u7684\u7a0e\u524d\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u3002\u6d4b\u7b97\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7efc\u5408\u8003\u8651\u57fa\u51c6\u7535\u4ef7\u3001\u7535\u7164\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u5408\u540c\u7535\u4ef7\u3001\u5e74\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u3001\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u6536\u5165\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5728\u8d44\u672c\u6210\u672c\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c\u516c\u5e03\u76845\u5e74\u671f\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e02\u573a\u62a5\u4ef7\u5229\u7387\uff08LPR\uff09\u4f30\u7b97\u5404\u71c3\u7164\u673a\u7ec4\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u56de\u6536\u7cfb\u6570\uff08Capital Recovery Factor, CRF\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba1\u7b97\u5404\u7701\u7684\u88c5\u673a\u5bb9\u91cf\u52a0\u6743CRF\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u523b\u753b\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u5728\u7164\u7535\u673a\u7ec4\u6295\u8d44\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u878d\u8d44\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u672a\u6765\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u7164\u7535\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u7b26\u5408\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e292\u00b0C\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u7535\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6700\u5c0f\u6210\u672c\u8131\u78b3\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u83b7\u53d62035\u5e74\u5404\u7701\u7684\u7535\u6e90\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u88c5\u673a\u89c4\u6a21\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.crsus.2025.100389\">Z. Zhang et al., 2025<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u7164\u7535\u76c8\u5229\u6d4b\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u5728\u672a\u6765\u7535\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c2035\u5e74\u7164\u7535\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u7ed3\u5408\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u501f\u9274\u56fd\u9645\u5bb9\u91cf\u8865\u507f\u673a\u5236\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u4e0e\u5bb9\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u63d0\u51fa\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u56fe1<\/strong>\u5c55\u793a\u4e862024\u5e74\u5404\u7701\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u7684\u7a0e\u524d\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u3002\u76f8\u5173\u8fd0\u884c\u4e0e\u6210\u672c\u6570\u636e\u5747\u6765\u81ea\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e09\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u4e0d\u5f15\u5165\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u5f15\u5165\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u8c03\u6574\u4e0a\u7f51\u7535\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650\uff1b\uff083\uff09\u5f15\u5165\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\uff0c\u5e76\u8c03\u6574\u4e0a\u7f51\u7535\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u71c3\u7164\u4e0a\u7f51\u7535\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e3a\u5404\u7701\u57fa\u51c6\u7535\u4ef7\u7684120%\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndrc.gov.cn\/xxgk\/zcfb\/tz\/202110\/t20211012_1299461.html\">NDRC, 2021<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u79cd\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u8c03\u6574\u4e0a\u7f51\u7535\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650\u201d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u5b9e\u8df5\uff1a\u5373\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u88ab\u6298\u7b97\u4e3a\u7b49\u6548\u7535\u91cf\u4ef7\u503c\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u5e74\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u4ece\u4e0a\u7f51\u7535\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650\u4e2d\u4e88\u4ee5\u6263\u51cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emtracker.sdsc.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/fig1_simple_source_CN.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2046\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u603b\u4f53\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u57fa\u51c6\u7535\u4ef7\u8f83\u4f4e\u3001\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u8f83\u5c11\u3001\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5176\u7164\u7535\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u666e\u904d\u504f\u4f4e\u3002\u897f\u5317\u7535\u7f51\u533a\u57df\u540c\u65f6\u5305\u542b\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u7701\u4efd\uff08\u5982\u5b81\u590f\u3001\u7518\u8083\u3001\u9752\u6d77\uff09\u548c\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u7701\u4efd\uff08\u5982\u5185\u8499\u53e4\uff09\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u548c\u5e74\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u5dee\u5f02\u6240\u9a71\u52a8\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u533a\u57df\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u56e0\u7d20\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4e2d\u90e8\u5730\u533a\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u5168\u56fd\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u4e1c\u5317\u5730\u533a\u867d\u7136\u57fa\u51c6\u7535\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5168\u56fd\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u7164\u7535\u673a\u7ec4\u5e74\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u6700\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f15\u5165\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u540e\uff0c\u7164\u7535\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u663e\u8457\u6539\u5584\u3002\u5728\u5728\u672a\u8c03\u6574\u7535\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7a0e\u524d\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u7edd\u5bf9\u503c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e864%-20%\u3002\u6539\u5584\u5e45\u5ea6\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7701\u4efd\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u57fa\u51c6\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5982\u9752\u6d77\u3001\u7518\u8083\u548c\u4e91\u5357\u3002\u5728\u5047\u5b9a\u7164\u7535\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u548c\u57fa\u51c6\u7535\u4ef7\u76f8\u8fd1\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u53ef\u4f7f\u56db\u5ddd\u3001\u5e7f\u897f\u7b49\u7701\u4efd\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u9ad83%-5%\u3002\u5728\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e0a\u7f51\u7535\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650\u8c03\u6574\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\uff08MLT\uff09\u5408\u540c\u7535\u4ef7\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u7535\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650\u7684\u7701\u4efd\uff08\u5982\u5b81\u590f\u3001\u8d35\u5dde\u3001\u6d77\u5357\uff09\uff0c\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u5bf9\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\u8f83\u5c0f\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u7ed3\u679c\u89c1<strong>\u8865\u5145\u6750\u6599<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u56fe2<\/strong>\u5c55\u793a\u4e862035\u5e74\u5404\u7701\u5728\u5f15\u5165\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\uff08\u672a\u8c03\u6574\u4e0a\u7f51\u7535\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650\uff09\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u7a0e\u524d\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3001\u7164\u7535\u88c5\u673a\u89c4\u6a21\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u622a\u81f32022\u5e74\u7684\u7164\u7535\u5269\u4f59\u8d37\u6b3e\u89c4\u6a21\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.efchina.org\/Attachments\/Report\/report-lceg-20211020\/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%85%A4%E7%94%B5%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%8E%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90.pdf\">Wang et al., 2022<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u5173\u7ed3\u679c\u57fa\u4e8e\u7b26\u54082\u00b0C\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e29\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u7535\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6700\u5c0f\u6210\u672c\u8131\u78b3\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u8be5\u8def\u5f84\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u7164\u7535\u88c5\u673a\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u5e74\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u7ec4\u5408\u7406\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u7164\u7535\u88c5\u673a\u5bb9\u91cf\u5c06\u4ece2024\u5e74\u7684\u7ea61400 GW\u4e0b\u964d\u81f32035\u5e74\u7684880-1050 GW\uff1b\u7164\u7535\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u5c06\u4ece2024\u5e74\u76846940 TWh \u4e0b\u964d\u81f32035\u5e74\u76843070-3450 TWh\u3002\u76f8\u5e94\u5730\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u5e73\u5747\u7164\u7535\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u5c06\u4ece\u7ea65000 \u5c0f\u65f6\u964d\u81f33100-3900\u5c0f\u65f6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emtracker.sdsc.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fig2_source_CN.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2049\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u968f\u7740\u7164\u7535\u5229\u7528\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c2035\u5e74\u5168\u56fd\u7164\u7535\u7a0e\u524d\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u76f8\u8f832024\u5e74\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u201325%\u81f3+5%\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5229\u6da6\u4e0a\u5347\u4e3b\u8981\u6e90\u4e8e\u66f4\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u8865\u507f\u3002\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u8d44\u6e90\u8d28\u91cf\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff08\u5982\u6c5f\u897f\uff09\uff0c\u7164\u7535\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0f\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u53ef\u8fbe8%\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5185\u8499\u53e4\u548c\u5409\u6797\u7b49\u7701\u4efd\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u6700\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7164\u7535\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u90e8\u7f72\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u4e862035\u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u4e24\u7c7b\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u7c7b\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u7164\u7535\u957f\u671f\u4f4e\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5269\u4f59\u672a\u507f\u8d37\u6b3e\u89c4\u6a21\u4e2d\u7b49\uff08\u5982\u7518\u8083\u3001\u5b81\u590f\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9762\u4e34\u6210\u672c\u56de\u6536\u4e0d\u8db3\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u6401\u6d45\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7c7b\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u7164\u7535\u76c8\u5229\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u672a\u507f\u8d37\u6b3e\u89c4\u6a21\u5e9e\u5927\uff08\u5982\u5185\u8499\u53e4\u3001\u5c71\u4e1c\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u52a0\u901f\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5b58\u5728\u82e5\u5e72\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7701\u7ea7\u5c42\u9762\u71c3\u7164\u673a\u7ec4\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u6709\u9650\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u6708\u5ea6\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u9664\u4ee5\u7701\u7ea7\u71c3\u7164\u88c5\u673a\u5bb9\u91cf\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f30\u7b97\u7164\u7535\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u3002\u4e3a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8be5\u4f30\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u6e90\u5c40\uff08NEA\uff09\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a2013-2023\u5e74\u5168\u56fd\u5e73\u5747\u71c3\u7164\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u7ea6\u4e3a4417\u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0e\u672c\u6587\u4f30\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\u57fa\u672c\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5404\u7701\u71c3\u7164\u4e0a\u7f51\u7535\u4ef7\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6210\u4ea4\u4ef7\u683c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u57fa\u51c6\u7535\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u6700\u9ad8\u00b120%\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u672c\u6587\u57fa\u4e8e\u884c\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u548c\u7535\u529b\u4ea4\u6613\u5e73\u53f0\u83b7\u53d6\u4e86\u5e74\u5ea6\u5e73\u5747\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u5408\u540c\u7535\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4f01\u4e1a\u6216\u673a\u7ec4\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u7cbe\u7ec6\u5316\u4ef7\u683c\u6570\u636e\u4ecd\u8f83\u4e3a\u6709\u9650\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u57282035\u5e74\u7164\u7535\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u8865\u507f\u6c34\u5e73\u63d0\u9ad8\u81f3\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u768450%\u3002\u672c\u6587\u672a\u7279\u5730\u8003\u8651\u78b3\u6355\u96c6\u4e0e\u5c01\u5b58\u6539\u9020\u3001\u63d0\u524d\u9000\u5f79\u4ee5\u53ca\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u6539\u9020\u7b49\u7164\u7535\u8f6c\u578b\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u7eb3\u5165\u5bb9\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u5efa\u6a21\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u672c\u6587\u5206\u6790\u5bf9\u5b8c\u5584\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u542f\u793a\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u57282024\u5e74\u5f15\u5165\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u540e\uff0c\u5404\u7701\u7164\u7535\u7a0e\u524d\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u4ecb\u4e8e\u201333%\u81f326%\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u4e14\u533a\u57df\u5dee\u5f02\u663e\u8457\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5dee\u5f02\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u57282035\u5e74\u524d\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6269\u5927\u3002\u5982\u679c\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u90e8\u5206\u8865\u507f\u7164\u7535\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u81f3\u5c11\u5e94\u5728\u7701\u7ea7\u5c42\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u5dee\u5f02\u5316\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d1\u5c55\u6539\u9769\u59d4\u5df2\u660e\u786e\u5c06\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u80fd\u8017\u3001\u73af\u4fdd\u53ca\u7075\u6d3b\u8c03\u8282\u80fd\u529b\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u7164\u7535\u673a\u7ec4\u6392\u9664\u5728\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u8865\u507f\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5916\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u7b26\u5408\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u673a\u7ec4\u4e2d\uff0c\u73b0\u884c\u673a\u5236\u5c1a\u672a\u6839\u636e\u673a\u7ec4\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u71c3\u6599\u6548\u7387\u53ca\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u76c8\u5229\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u8fdb\u884c\u5dee\u5f02\u5316\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/paper.people.com.cn\/zgnyb\/html\/2023-12\/04\/content_26031006.htm\">Hui, 2023<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u7eb3\u5165\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u63d0\u5347\u653f\u7b56\u7cbe\u51c6\u6027\u548c\u6210\u672c\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4f7f\u8865\u507f\u771f\u6b63\u6d41\u5411\u65e2\u9762\u4e34\u8d22\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u3001\u53c8\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u673a\u7ec4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u63a2\u7d22\u66f4\u52a0\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u5bb9\u91cf\u8865\u507f\u8bbe\u8ba1\u9009\u9879\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u673a\u5236\u6548\u7387\u4e0e\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u52302035\u5e74\uff0c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u8d44\u6e90\u6761\u4ef6\u4f18\u8d8a\u7684\u7701\u4efd\uff0c\u7164\u7535\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d15%\uff1b\u800c\u8d44\u6e90\u6761\u4ef6\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5f31\u7684\u7701\u4efd\uff0c\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad88%\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5168\u56fd\u7164\u7535\u5229\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u5448\u4e0b\u964d\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u540c\u533a\u57df\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u5145\u88d5\u5ea6\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u8fd0\u884c\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ecd\u5c06\u663e\u8457\u5206\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u65e2\u9700\u8981\u5177\u5907\u5bf9\u7535\u7f51\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u5b9c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u524a\u5f31\u6295\u8d44\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5e74\u5ea6\u56fa\u5b9a\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u76f8\u8f83\u5b63\u5ea6\u6216\u6708\u5ea6\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u73b0\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u62a5\u4ef7\u884c\u4e3a\uff1b\u4f46\u82e5\u7f3a\u4e4f\u4e0d\u5c65\u7ea6\u60e9\u7f5a\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5176\u6fc0\u52b1\u6548\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u9650\u3002\u5bb9\u91cf\u8865\u507f\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u9891\u7387\u3001\u8de8\u5e74\u5ea6\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\u4ee5\u53ca\u5386\u53f2\u7ee9\u6548\u56de\u6eaf\u7a97\u53e3\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u5747\u9700\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5ba1\u614e\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u7164\u7535\u5bb9\u91cf\u4ef7\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u5f15\u5165\u57fa\u4e8e\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff08\u5982\u6709\u6548\u8d1f\u8377\u627f\u8f7d\u80fd\u529b\uff0cELCC\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u8d44\u6e90\u8865\u507f\u4e0e\u5176\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u8d44\u6e90\u5145\u88d5\u5ea6\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u8d21\u732e\u76f8\u5339\u914d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u66f4\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u5e94\u4ece\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u884c\u653f\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u6f14\u8fdb\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u5316\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5316\u673a\u5236\u66f4\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5f62\u6210\u6709\u6548\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ee5\u66f4\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4fdd\u969c\u8d44\u6e90\u5145\u88d5\u5ea6\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jup.2007.10.003\">Joskow, 2008<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u9664\u7164\u7535\u5916\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u6e90\u540c\u6837\u80fd\u591f\u6ee1\u8db3\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bb9\u91cf\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u673a\u5236\u5e94\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u8d44\u6e90\u7c7b\u578b\u4fdd\u6301\u5f00\u653e\uff0c\u5e76\u53cd\u6620\u5176\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6280\u672f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7279\u5f81\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/eta-publications.lbl.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/fri_regulatory_recommendations_dec2021.pdf\">Kahrl et al., 2021<\/a>\uff09\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u98ce\u9669\u66b4\u9732\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41560-019-0476-1\">Mays et al., 2019<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u56fd\u9645\u7535\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5c1a\u672a\u5bf9\u6700\u4f18\u5bb9\u91cf\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5f62\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8005\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8d44\u6e90\u51c6\u5165\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u6216\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ee9\u6548\u7684\u8865\u507f\u65b9\u5f0f\u3001\u5206\u7c7b\u578b\u6216\u6309\u673a\u7ec4\u8865\u507f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u91c7\u7528\u5e73\u5747\u6216\u8fb9\u9645\u5bb9\u91cf\u4ef7\u503c\u7b49\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.tej.2018.01.006\">Byers et al., 2018<\/a>\uff1b<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.eneco.2025.108640\">Prete et al., 2024<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u672a\u6765\u5bb9\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e94\u9075\u5faa\u82e5\u5e72\u6838\u5fc3\u539f\u5219\uff1a\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u3001\u975e\u6b67\u89c6\u6027\u3001\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u4e0d\u5c65\u7ea6\u60e9\u7f5a\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c3d\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u73b0\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u626d\u66f2\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.raponline.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Capacity-Mechanisms-Whitepaper_CN_layout.pdf\">Ming et al., 2023<\/a>\uff1b<a href=\"https:\/\/www.raponline.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/%E5%AE%B9%E9%87%8F%E8%A1%A5%E5%81%BF%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6%EF%BC%9A%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE%E8%80%83%E8%99%91%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0layout.pdf\">RAP, 2023<\/a>\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fc8\u54112060\u5e74\u78b3\u4e2d\u548c\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6269\u5f20\u540e\u7684\u7164\u7535\u673a\u7ec4\u7fa4\u5982\u4f55\u88ab\u9ad8\u6548\u5229\u7528\uff0c\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5b8c\u6210\u4f4e\u78b3\u6539\u9020\u3001\u6392\u653e\u5f3a\u5ea6\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u673a\u7ec4\uff0c\u5c06\u5728\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u5360\u6bd4\u6301\u7eed\u63d0\u9ad8\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u8d44\u6e90\u5145\u88d5\u5ea6\u548c\u7535\u7f51\u97e7\u6027\u63d0\u4f9b\u91cd\u8981\u652f\u6491\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6fc0\u52b1\u7164\u7535\u6539\u9020\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6846\u67b6\u4ecd\u6709\u5f85\u660e\u786e\u3002\u672a\u6765\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u5e94\u5145\u5206\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4e0e\u8131\u78b3\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u73b0\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u6539\u9769\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u56fd\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u4ea4\u6613\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u7164\u7535\u89d2\u8272\u6f14\u53d8\u4e0e\u957f\u671f\u6c14\u5019\u76ee\u6807\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5efa\u8bae\u5f15\u7528\uff1a<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Zhang, Z., Zhang, Y., &amp; Davidson, M. &#8220;Capacity Payments for Coal-fired Power Plants in China&#8221; Electricity Market Tracker, January 27, 2026,<a href=\"https:\/\/https\"> <\/a><a href=\"about:blank\">https:\/\/https:\/\/emtracker.sdsc.edu\/research\/capacity-payments-for-coal-fired-power-plants-in-china\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u672c\u62a5\u544a\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fd\u7164\u7535\u5bb9\u91cf\u7535\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u4e3a\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5728\u7701\u7ea7\u5c42\u9762\u8bc4\u4f30\u5176\u5bf9\u7164\u7535\u673a\u7ec4\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u6bd4\u8f832024\u5e74\u73b0\u72b6\u4e0e2035\u5e74\u7535\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u8f6c\u578b\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":2017,"template":"","emt-research-type":[124],"emt-research-area":[118],"emt-keyword":[],"class_list":["post-1977","emt-research","type-emt-research","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","emt-research-type-124","emt-research-area-forward-contracts-zh-hans"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - 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